Las Angeles (HAN) August 31.2016. Public Diplomacy & Regional Security News. Opinion By. Faisal Roble. The Narrowing Chances of a Come back Kid: How HSM is slated to lose the 2016 election
There are two realities facing the elections:
(a) whether there would an election in 2016 since many factors point to the possibility of pushing the election schedule perhaps all the way to Spring 2017 thus hereafter referring it to the 2017 election; and
(b) whether the team of HSM will ever accept fair and free elections since this team never dreamt of losing an unorganized, personality deriven candidates.
Yes, the HSM team (aka Dameljadid) have all the infrastructures to dominate the pre-election landscape – money, state apparatus such as the security network, national media and corrupt IC who is a huge factor in dragging this country in the mud. But that is where HSM’s political capital stops.
The following factors may work against him:
- He does not command the support of the dominant clans in Mogadishu – a huge factor in deciding the final outcome. Initially, he told the clans in Mogadishu that he will give them generous seats at the upper and lower houses. But true to his empty promises, he left them in the cold. Mogadishu goes to the election without being represented. There is also no formula in the horizon to address their grievances.
- HSM does not command the support of the highly influential moderate religious clerics in the whole country. They view his runaway corruption blasphemy. They may field their own candidates.
- He lost the support of Somalilanders in Mogadishu, including the Deputy Prime Minister. This block of 60 seats were until recently in his pocket just like money in your saving account. They are ready to vote for someone other than him.
- Reliable sources inform me that both Puntland and Jubbaland has given him the short end of the stick. He thought he was using them. But it appears they used him, and successfuly broke down his coalition,a coalition that based on an ampty coalition built on nothing but on clan sentiment. Today his clan may choose the greater good over HSM (the slogan is “rer- Muqdishoow Soomaali u hiiliya). If that happrns, it could be the beginning of the healing of this broken and blighted nation, and the end of the HSM’s corrupt and ineffective rule.
- A particular pain to him is that HSM has lost the very state that he created – Galmudug. As a matter of fact he hurt that state by designing a division of it into Cadaado- and Duusamareed-centered mini administration’s. Divide and rule he employed against them. The talk in Mogadishu is that he even lost the support of Abdikarm. This is a proof that politics is a dirty business. But Abdikarim can make politics an honorable endeavor if he sides with the overwhelming desire of the Somali majority and supports a better candidate than the villa Somalia group. What a history making and exonoration of past errors!
- The political grave of HSM is ironically the very city that the ailing Hadrawi praised as the city of peace. Yes, you guessed it right. If Beerlula, that beautiful brown skin Somali beauty signified the peacefulness of Baldweyn (Hiiraan), Ugaas Rooble stood for a principle and resolve that Somalis seemed to have lost with the passing of another prominent Beltwayn son, Adan Abdulle Osman, or the positive stubbornness that the late Sayyid Abdulle Hassan showed to the colonialists. HSM lost the masses of this region too.
- The bellow-division between Farah Abdulkadir and his cousin-turned-political nemesis Fahad is the final dagger of multiple stubs in the heart of HSM. This divide between Farah and Fahad (who is now endorsing Farmajo) has lead HSM to brake the law and interfere with the selection of clan elders. HSM flew back from Nairobi last night, twisted the arm of Jaweri to authorize to hand-pick an elder that wiil inturn pick Farah Abduladir as opposed to a fair process. This latest action by the failing Presidnet, is unprecedented and is the mother of all corruption as well as a sign that HSM is not willing to leave power peacefully. In that case, he will face the titanic will of the Somali populace.
What he did with this issue literally nullified the NFL. If the IC closes it’s eyes, the only option for the opposition is to cast a big demonstration against the IC and then villa Somalia. The two are sleeping together – wey is-naas nuujinayaan ilayn wax $2 billion ayay qaybsadaane.
- By September 9, HSM is no longer the Presidnet of Somalia. That is in how Somalis will view him. Who is going to man the house, if Villa Somalia is bent on cheating the election, is the worry of the nation.
Without massive devine intervention, Somalia may face a new political crisis. To save this nation from further hardship, HSM should give other candidates a chance or he may meet the harsh verdict of History. Stay tuned.
* Any views expressed in this article are those of the author and not of GEESKA AFRIKA.