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HAN
Note:  IGAD
Breaking News (HAN) March 7 th, 2007.
 Somaliland
Ethiopia
Eritrea
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Somalia
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The Geeska Afrika Editorial Board and HAN Regional
Reporters would like to appeal to our readers and observers to Facilitate
regional commentary amicably to act as an independent, objective and impartial body so
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Somalia: The Aftermath of Ethiopia’s Invasion
Nairobi
(HAN) March 7th, 2007 - The spiraling violence in
Mogadishu is proceeding as planned, and it is in line with Meles
Zenawi’s strategy of frustrating Somali people’s desire to
restore peace and stability in their country.
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The spiraling violence in Mogadishu is
proceeding as planned, and it is in line with Meles Zenawi’s
strategy of frustrating Somali people’s desire to restore peace
and stability in their country
The Horn of African Journalist
Association (HAJA): han@geeskaafrika.com
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The Somali writer, Buri M. Hamza, based in Toronto Canada wrote:
The Transitional Federal Government of Somalia (TFG), under the current
leadership of the Interim President Abdullahi Yusuf and his Prime
Minister Ali Mohamed Ghedi, appears to be steadily slipping further into
irrelevance. Ethiopia’s meddling has not been limited to military
invasion and indiscriminate killing of innocent Somalis; it also
includes a well-planned policy methodically crafted to escalate chaos in
Mogadishu and in other parts of Somalia. A renewed chaos and mayhem,
initially in the capital city of Somalia, and subsequently in other
areas of strategic importance to Meles Zenawi, will be tantamount to a
return to pre-Islamic Courts’ periods where warlordism, insecurity, and
total disarray were rampant. The spiraling violence in Mogadishu is
proceeding as planned, and it is in line with Meles Zenawi’s strategy of
frustrating Somali people’s desire to restore peace and stability in
their country. It is also consistent with Ethiopian government’s plan
that is meticulously crafted to revive the previously warlord-controlled
anarchy and bring about a gradual demise of the Transitional Federal
Institutions incepted at Embagathi, in preparation for the execution of
an agenda that is more sinister and ominously dangerous. It is not at
all unfair at this juncture to state that the current leadership of the
TFG has indeed degraded itself. It has succumbed to the mercy of an
unpopular regime in Ethiopia, which has not only turned its back on its
own people, but also determined to wreak havoc to the beleaguered people
of Somalia. Many identify the President and the Prime Minister of the
TFG, as “pawns and puppets” of a foreign government that has: violated
human rights in its own country, rigged elections in May 2005 to remain
in power, undermined independent press, and violated the territorial
integrity of a neighbouring state. For more on repressive Ethiopia under
Meles Zenawi’s rule, read the article on The Economist of February 22,
2007 entitled “On a Dilemma in the Horn: Should the West Go on Helping a
Repressive Ethiopia? ”.
The presence of Zenawi’s troops in Mogadishu and in other parts of
Somalia has, as expected, only exacerbated the precarious security
situation in the country. It has dismantled the relative stability that
was brought about by the ousted Islamic Courts and provoked massive
population displacement. With the insecurity worsening in many parts of
Somalia, the Marshall Law imposed with a blessing from Meles Zenawi has
only tarnished TFG’s image and rendered it more irrelevant.
Meles Zenawi’s policy of clan manipulation in order to implement his
divide-and-rule strategy is not new to anyone anymore. It has been the
policy of the current as well as that of the previous regimes of
Ethiopia. The recent invitation extended to a group of clan elders in
Mogadishu to meet with Meles Zenawi and his aides in Addis Ababa was
nothing but an attempt to strengthen clan cleavages, fuel hatred among
Somalis, and further embarrass Zenawi’s proxies in the Transitional
Federal Institutions and assert their worthlessness The mere fact that
this invitation was extended without any prior consultation and
coordination with the government of Abdullahi Yusuf and Ali Mohamed
Ghedi, is indicative of the fact that TFG leaders can be rendered
irrelevant when needed and even eventually altogether dumped when deemed
so. This particular political overture by Meles Zenawi to a group of
clan leaders, allegedly opposed to TFG, has indeed sent very
discouraging signals to Abdullahi Yusuf and Ali Mohamed Ghedi, and
provoked consternation and a panic among their fans.
In this short paper, I will attempt to assess Meles Zenawi’s motives
for invading Somalia. I will place this assessment in the context of: a)
Ethiopia’s old dream of annexing Somalia to its territory; b) Ethiopian
governments’ determination to weaken Somalia and its governments through
clan manipulation and divide-and-rule policy”; c) and Meles Zenawi’s
insistence to unravel any national reconciliation endeavours that can
lead to the establishment of a government of national unity that is
devoid of his pawns, for fear of losing his grip and authority over the
destiny of Somalia.
Zenawi’s Rationale for Invading Somalia
Meles Zenawi and his government describe the US-backed Ethiopian
invasion of Somalia as a military operation that was “prompted by the
menaces posed by the growing influence of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC)”.
On December 24, 2006, Meles Zenawi, in a televised statement, admitted
for the first time that his troops were waging a war against “Islamists
in Somalia in order to protect his nation’s sovereignty”. Following this
televised statement, Meles Zenawi’s military began pounding Somalia to
quell militias of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) and kill innocent
Somalis.
But what are the actual underlying reasons for this invasion? Meles
Zenawi’s contention that his army had attacked the UIC because of
Ethiopia’s “national interest and the protection of his nation’s
sovereignty” has been widely contested. Fekade Shewakena – an Ethiopian
scholar in the diaspora – in his article, “Meles Zenawi’s Invasion of
Somalia: A Serious Long-Term Foreign Policy Blunder”, reveals:
“The invasion of Somalia is the biggest foreign policy blunder by an
Ethiopian administration. Strategically speaking, Ethiopia’s interests
have been significantly undermined by Meles Zenawi’s invasion of
Somalia. Authoritarian regimes by their very nature conflate national
interest and their short-term political objectives and calculate their
foreign policy based on the maintenance of their political power.
Dictators see no national interest outside of their greed of power. The
concept of national interest has a more dynamic meaning in an
increasingly globalizing world and it is not strictly confined to
physical security and boundary issues alone. The biggest threat to
national security and national interest in my view is the extreme and
obscene poverty in the country. Nearly half of the population lives
below the poverty line and the army of the destitute and urban
unemployment is increasing by the day. Any pursuit of national interest
that does not take into account this very dangerous condition that is
destroying us as a nation is simply wrong. If Ethiopia is to be
destroyed it will be destroyed by its obscene poverty than by any
foreign force”.
Drawing upon Mr. Shewakena’s argument, the discourse of “national
interest” and “nation’s sovereignty” invoked by Meles Zenawi to justify
his occupation of a sovereign country and his killing of innocent
Somalis is not the real motive that has led to the US-backed invasion.
Meles Zenawi’s occupation of Somalia is literally “an old Abyssinian
dream come true”. Meles Zenawi is in Somalia to stay with the purpose of
executing the plan that his predecessors had failed to implement. The
plan is to initially keep Somalia weak and divided under Ethiopia’s
control, and subsequently melt it into “Greater Ethiopia”.
Ambassador Mohamed Sharif , in his article “The Underlying Reasons for
Ethiopia’s Invasion of Somalia”, posted on Aljazeeranet , argues:
“The Ethiopian invasion represents the latest of the series of events
that epitomize Ethiopia’s territorial claim over Somalia. The Abyssinian
leaders have always considered Somalia as part and parcel of their
Ethiopian Empire that stretches from the Abyssinian plateaus down to the
coastal areas in the Indian Ocean. This was the premise that the
Ethiopians had put forth at the United Nations in 1947 when the
independence of former Italian Somaliland was deliberated. Ethiopia had
then vehemently rejected the idea of independent Somalia because it had
insisted that it was part of its entity. Ethiopia had participated in
1884 in the colonial partition of Somalia in collusion with France,
Britain and Italy, and was adamantly opposed to the unification of
British and Italian Somalilands in 1960”.
Based on what the Ambassador has cited in terms of the historical
perspective of Ethiopia’s involvement in the partition of Somalia in
collusion with the colonial powers, and its determination to annex
Somalia to its territory and bloc the efforts undertaken to secure
independence and unity for Somalia, it will be insane from our part to
accept the argument that Meles Zenawi’s troops are in Somalia only to
counter the growing threat of the Islamic Courts and salvage the feeble
Transitional Federal Government. It will also be a sheer naiveté and
ingenuousness from our part, perhaps partly because of our clan
prejudices, to shrug off Ethiopia’s sinister and evil motives vis-à-vis
Somalia and its people.
Meles Zenawi has managed to fool the US Administration and dupe it into
another embarrassment. The invasion that the US has financed and blessed
is further tearing apart a nation that has seen nothing but chaos and
misery all through the 16 years of civil unrest. The US is responsible
for pushing the Ethiopian government to use lethal arsenals against
innocent people for the sole purpose of pursuing three people accused of
being involved in the attacks on US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, and
perhaps hound other Islamists presumed to be members of the radical wing
of the UIC that are alleged to have links with Al-Qaeda.
But what has this US-backed Ethiopian terrorism achieved? The US has
created more enemies for itself, and is blamed for the perpetuation of
chaos in Somalia. Professor Ken Menkhaus, in his last testimony before
the US Senate Africa Subcommittee, said, “….the mood after the invasion
in Mogadishu is weary, sullen, and angry. Anti-American sentiment is
high. Rightly or wrongly, the US is held responsible for the collapse of
public order in Mogadishu.”
Ethiopia, on the other hand, is euphoric because it has succeeded in
restoring anarchy in Mogadishu and in other parts of Somalia, and is now
striving hard to deepen fragmentation and render the country weaker and
more vulnerable.
Zenawi’s Policy of Clan Manipulation
The policy of clan/warlord manipulation is not Zenawi’s invention. It
was religiously practiced by the previous brutal regime of Mengistu
Haile-Mariam. The policy of manipulation of clan cleavages and
differences in Somalia has provided the Ethiopian regimes with the
conditions that are propitious to the dismemberment of the Somali
homogenous national identity. The Ethiopian governments have used the
“clan card” skillfully to perpetuate the Somali mayhem and impede the
reconstitution of the Somali state. It bodes well for any regime in
Ethiopia to resort to “clan card” in its destabilization policy of
Somalia. Mengistu Haile-Mariam hosted and armed clan-based opposition
factions that had later participated in the overthrow of Siyad Barre.
For those who are not familiar with the history of armed opposition that
was launched from within Ethiopia to destabilize the regime of Siyad
Barre, the reason why the former military regime in Ethiopia had
manipulated clan rebels was not because of its belief in the importance
of the restoration of democracy and freedom in the neighbouring country.
In simple laymen’s jargon: the reason was to overthrow Siyad Barre’s
government, bloc any effort aimed at the reconstitution of free and
democratic Somalia, and eventually melt Somalis into “Greater Ethiopia”.
Meles Zenawi’s regime has never been any different from Mengistu’s with
regard to Somalia. It has emulated and pursued its arch enemy’s
divide-and-rule strategy. It has never made things easier for Somalia
despite the support it had received from its people in the struggle
against the despotic regime of Mengistu.
Meles Zenawi has all along been disingenuous with regard to the plight
of the Somali people all through the 16 years of the civil strife. His
government is still loath to let Somalis stand on their feet again. It
had micro-managed Embagathi Peace Process only to produce a feeble TFG
that cannot deliver. The focus on warlords at Embagathi has precluded
any possibility of establishing a reasonably acceptable post-conflict
peacebuilding and (re) construction programme in Somalia.
Prior to Embagathi, Meles Zenawi and his government unleashed a
systematic campaign against the Transitional National Government (TNG)
formed following the successful conclusion of Arta Peace Process in the
year 2000. This process, which was hosted by the neighbouring state of
Djibouti, was unquestionably more participatory and representative
because it assembled over 3000 delegates from all over Somalia
representing a wide array of clan and traditional elders, women and
scholars, and representatives of the Somali civil society organizations.
This Process shunned the notorious warlords who were responsible for the
country’s pandemonium.
To abort TNG, the Ethiopian government hosted a meeting in Ethiopia
(specifically in Awassa, Ethiopia) for the Somali warlords and other
factions who were opposed to Arta Peace Process in order to spearhead a
plan for TNG destabilization. This meeting led to the formation of the
“Somali Reconciliation and Restoration Council” (“SRRC”) whose founding
fathers are now the “leaders” of the Transitional Federal Institutions .
I must, nonetheless, concur with Prof. Abdi Ismail Samatar’s contention
that TNG’s failure was due to a “combination of Ethiopia’s sabotage and
the Somali leaders’ incompetence and venality ”. In fact, some of
Ethiopia’s “friends” within the TNG with strong ties with Meles Zenawi’s
government were instrumental in the dismantlement of the Transitional
Institutions incepted at Arta.
Ethiopia’s Obsession to Abort Reconciliation Efforts
To ensure that its agenda of Somalia’s destabilization is not hampered
by the international community’s effort to set up a government of
national unity, Meles Zenawi’s government will leave no stone unturned
to ensure that this endeavour is aborted. Tekie Fessahatzion, an
Eritrean scholar based in the US, in his piece entitled “After Somalia,
Who is Next? ” argues:
“Meles wants anything but a unified government in Somalia. Given a
choice between anarchic and fragmented Somalia and one that is united,
Meles chooses the former. The US wants to see a stable government; Meles
prefers an anarchic one. What he really wants is an ungovernable entity
with diminished sovereignty, something he wanted to do to Eritrea in
2000 but could not”.
If Meles Zenawi finds himself under pressure from the US to cave in and
accept international community’s proposed national reconciliation
conference, the scenario that I would immediately envisage is: a
reconciliation conference micro-managed and coerced by Ethiopia and its
“friends” within the TFG. Ethiopia and its “friends” must not be allowed
to meddle with the impending reconciliation endeavours.
For the impending national reconciliation process to be able to deliver
and spearhead a viable post-conflict peacebuilding and recovery
programme, the mandate and responsibilities of this process must be
bestowed upon an “independent party” that is immune to Ethiopia’s
manipulation.
The national reconciliation conference must be preceded by a
pre-negotiation process – facilitated by the international community –
with the view to establishing an independent National Reconciliation
Commission (NRC) with its specific responsibilities and detailed terms
of reference. The tasks of the pre-negotiation process could also
include but not limit to: cessation of hostilities and immediate
withdrawal of the Ethiopian troops; rules of the engagement of the
peacekeeping forces and their specific mandates; the venue of the
conference; and the agenda and the criteria for participation.
Conclusion
It is indeed distressing that Abdullahi Yusuf and Ali Mohamed Ghedi are
deliberately turning a blind eye to the seriousness of Ethiopia’s
occupation and its deadly consequences on Somalia.
Somalia has literally returned to Pre-Islamic Courts’ period when
warlordism and chaos reined. The New York Times has recently given a
grim picture of the situation in Somalia following Ethiopia’s invasion.
Among some of the depressing facts reported: “Nearly every day,
government forces and insurgents shell each other across dilapidated
neighborhoods in the capital, Mogadishu, scattering limbs and any
remaining traces of hope. Gun prices are soaring, more clans are joining
the underground, and an outbreak of cholera sweeps the countryside.”
The power bestowed upon the Interim President of the TFG following the
declaration of the Marshall Law is simply a travesty. It is indeed
pitiful that a government that was established to promote dialogue and
reconciliation in its war-torn society cave in to Meles Zenawi’s whims
and embark on banning the modicum of free press and free expression that
the country has enjoyed all through the turbulent periods of
statelessness. This reality enhances TFG’s irrelevance, and makes it
ineffectual and unpopular.
The US-backed Ethiopian invasion of Somalia might have weakened the
forces of the UIC, but the series of guerilla-style assaults on Meles
Zenawi’s troops that are being mounted in Mogadishu and in other parts
of Somalia on a daily basis, prove otherwise. It appears that the Courts
and their supporters are still there and are capable of inflicting heavy
losses on their enemies: both Meles Zenawi’s troops as well those of the
government of Abdullahi Yusuf and Ali Mohamed Ghedi.
The aftermath of Ethiopia’s occupation does not bode well for the TFG.
It has re-empowered the warlords, restored chaos that is consistent with
Meles Zenawi’s sinister plans, and deepened rifts between the TFG and
the Somali people.
The agenda of Meles Zenawi and his government has indeed tarnished the
reputation of the people of Ethiopia and rendered this old African
nation, which hosts the African Union in its capital city, a hostage of
the US Administration’s blunders in the Horn of African and in the
Middle East. The Somali people harbour no grudges against their brothers
and sisters in Ethiopia. They will always remember the generosity and
the unwavering support that the people of Ethiopia have extended to them
as they were fleeing the ravages of their civil war and the ensuing
disarray that was so widespread and devastating.
Opinion: Contributed by: Buri M. Hamza is currently a
freelance researcher in peacebuilding and environmental governance.
HAN
Note: This writing does not necessarily reflect the views of Geeska
Afrika Magazine or HAN. The author may be contacted at: buri.hamza@gmail.com
:
The Aftermath of Ethiopia’s Invasion: Somalia Reverting to Anarchy & TFG
Slipping Further into Irrelevance
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