East African defense chiefs to meet in Uganda on Somali peace mission
President Bush signs into law the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 on Dec. 17 in Washington.
President Bush signs into law a new bill overhauling the U.S. intelligence community on  More on the Intelligence Act 


 
Those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it." - George Santayana, A Life of Reason, Book One: Reason & Common Sense, 1916
Jack Kinsella

Listen to Majtenyi report :New Somali Government is facing tough demands to end violencet

Some conservationists hope cloning technology will someday be able to help save critically endangered relatives of the horse, such as the Somali Wild Ass and Koulan.

The list of extremely rare horse-like creatures that could get a population boost through cloning is a long one, says Betsy Dresser of the Audubon Research Institute..

                           

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The oil factor in Bush's ' Oil-transit chokepoints' and the Horn of Africa

 

Dr.Abdullahi Mohamed (Deputy Editor Geeka Afrika Online)  
Djibouti (HAN) March 3, 2005  Somalia "a forgotten crisis," Listen

Speaking Freely is HAN's Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say

 HAN March 3--Saleh for his part called on Germany to play an active role within the European Union and the international community to "support the rehabilitation of state structures" in war-torn Somalia.
 The oil factor in Bush's 'war on tyranny' and the Horn of Africa

Yemen and Germany signed three economic agreements as German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder held talks with Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh after arriving in Sanaa on the fifth leg of a regional tour. 

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Somalia: Continuation of War by Other Means?

 

The oil factor in Bush's ' Oil-transit chokepoints' and the Horn of Africa
Djibouti (HAN) March 3,  2005- Speaking Freely is HAN's online feature: Yemen fits nicely as an "emerging target" with the other target nearby, Somalia and Djibouti “the oil-transit chokepoints”.

The Sudan Oil Issues, as noted, has become a major oil supplier to China, whose national oil company has invested more than US$3 billion since 1999 building oil pipelines from southern Sudan to the Red Sea port. The coincidence of this fact with the escalating concern in Washington about genocide and humanitarian disaster in oil-rich Darfur in southern Sudan is not lost on Beijing. China threatened a United Nations veto against any intervention against Sudan. The first act of a re-elected Dick Cheney late last year was to fill his vice-presidential jet with UN Security Council members to fly to Nairobi to discuss the humanitarian crisis in Darfur, an eerie reminder of defense secretary Cheney's "humanitarian" concern over Somalia in 1991.

The Washington's choice of Somalia and Yemen is a matched pair, as a look at a Middle East/Horn of Africa map will confirm. Yemen sits at the oil-transit chokepoint of Bab el-Mandap, the narrow point controlling oil flow from the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean. Yemen also has oil, although no one yet knows just how much. It could be huge. A US firm, Hunt Oil Co, is pumping 200,000 barrels a day from there but that is likely only the tip of the find.

Yemen fits nicely as an "emerging target" with the other target nearby, Somalia.

"Yes, Virginia," the 1992 Somalia military action by George Herbert Walker Bush, which gave the US a bloody nose, was in fact about oil too. Little known was the fact that the humanitarian intervention by 20,000 US troops ordered by father Bush in Somalia had little to do with the purported famine relief for starving Somalis. It had a lot to do with the fact that four major US oil companies, led by Bush's friends at Conoco of Houston, Texas, and including Amoco (now BP), Condi Rice's Chevron, and Phillips, all held huge oil-exploration concessions in Somalia. The deals had been made with the former "pro-Washington" tyrannical and corrupt regime of Mohamed Siad Barre.

 

The last centurey’s Somalia leaders Gen. Mohamed Siad Barre was inconveniently deposed just as Conoco reportedly hit black gold with nine exploratory wells, confirmed by World Bank geologists. US Somalia envoy Robert B Oakley, a veteran of the US mujahideen project in Afghanistan in the 1980s, almost blew the US game when, during the height of the civil war in Mogadishu in 1992, he moved his quarters on to the Conoco compound for safety. A new US cleansing of Somali "tyranny" would open the door for these US oil companies to map and develop the possibly huge oil potential in Somalia. Yemen and Somalia are two flanks of the same geological configuration, which holds large potential petroleum deposits, as well as being the flanks of the oil chokepoint from the Red Sea.

 

Belarus is also no champion of human rights, but from Washington's standpoint, the fact that its government is tightly bound to Moscow makes it the obvious candidate for a Ukraine-style "Orange Revolution" regime-change effort. That would complete the US encirclement of Russia on the west and of Russia's export pipelines to Europe, were it to succeed. Some 81% of all Russian oil exports today go to Western European markets. Such a Belarus regime change now would limit the potential for a nuclear-armed Russia to form a bond with France, Germany and the EU as potential counterweight against the power of the United States sole superpower, a highest priority for Washington Eurasia geopolitics.

 

The military infrastructure for dealing with such tyrant states seems to be shaping up as well. In the January 24 New Yorker magazine, veteran journalist Seymour Hersh cited Pentagon and CIA sources to claim that the position of Rumsfeld and the warhawks is even stronger today than before the Iraq war. Hersh reported that Bush signed an Executive Order last year, without fanfare, placing major CIA covert operations and strategic analysis into the hands of the Pentagon, sidestepping any congressional oversight. He added that plans for the widening of the "war on terror" under Rumsfeld were also agreed upon in the administration well before the election.

 

The Washington Post confirmed Hersh's allegation, reporting that Rumsfeld's Pentagon had created, by Presidential Order, and bypassing Congress, a new Strategic Support Branch, which co-opts traditional clandestine and other functions of the CIA. According to a report by US Army Colonel (retired) Dan Smith, in Foreign Policy in Focus last November, the new SSB unit includes the elite military special SEAL Team 6, Delta Force army squadrons, and potentially a paramilitary army of 50,000 available for "splendid little wars" outside congressional purview.

The list of emerging targets in a new "war on tyranny" is clearly fluid, provisional, and adaptable as developments change. It is clear that a breathtaking array of future military and economic offensives is in the works at the highest policy levels to transform the world. A world oil price of US$150 a barrel or more in the next few years would be joined by chokepoint control of the supply by one power if Washington has its way.

German Ties with Yemen as Chancellor Makes First Visit
Yemen (HAN) March 3, 2005 : Yemen and Germany signed three economic agreements as German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder held talks with Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh after arriving in Sanaa on the fifth leg of a regional tour. 

A third agreement was signed between the Yemeni government and German engineering giant Siemens to build a gas-powered electricity station in Yemen to be financed by the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development (AFESD). 

"We have close economic ties ... and the president and myself are agreed on boosting this cooperation," Schroeder, the first German chancellor to visit Yemen, told reporters after the talks. 

Saleh for his part called on Germany to play an active role within the European Union and the international community to "support the rehabilitation of state structures" in war-torn Somalia. 

"If stability is not restored in Somalia ... it will be a breeding ground for terrorism," warned Saleh, who has launched a crackdown on suspected Al-Qaeda militants in his own country at the behest of the United States. 

East African defense chiefs to meet in Uganda on Somali peace mission

KAMPALA, March 3 (AFP) -- East African defense ministers will meet here next week to discuss the deployment of regional peacekeepers to lawless Somalia, a move which has met local opposition, the Ugandan foreign ministry said Tuesday.

Defense ministers and senior military officials from the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) will gather on Monday to review the findings of an expert-level fact-finding trip to Somalia to prepare the a report on the mission, it said.

"The defense ministers and army chiefs of staff will meet here starting on March 7 to receive a report from a team of experts that was recently in Mogadishu to assess the situation ahead of the proposed peace mission there," the ministry's permanent secretary, Julius Onen, told AFP.

The defense chiefs are to prepare a situational analysis and come up with the number of troops needed for the mission, its budget and other logistics, he said.

Monday's talks will set the stage for a meeting of IGAD foreign ministers on the issue of Somalia to be held March 16 and 17 in the Kenyan capital, Onen said.

The African Union has authorized IGAD -- which comprises Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Uganda -- to send peacekeepers to Somalia to help the country's transitional government get a foothold there when it eventually relocates from exile in Nairobi.

Although the goverment has requested the force, opposition to troops from Ethiopia and Djibouti is running high in Somalia, where the two countries are seen as having ulterior motives in contributing.

Onen said that the weekend rejection by influential Somali warlords of troops from the two nations would be discussed by the defense ministers but would not prevent the deployment of the IGAD force.

"That threat will not stop the mission because the region is ready to deploy troops in Somalia," he said.

Somalia has been awash in a sea of anarchic violence for 14 years since the 1991 ouster of Somali strongman Mohamed Siad Barre turned the Horn of Africa nation into a patchwork of fiefdoms ruled by violent warlords.

IGAD sponsored two years of peace talks between various Somali clans and factions that culminated in the formation of the Somali transitional government in Kenya in October.

The administration has remained in Nairobi because of security concerns although President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed and Prime Minister Mohammed Ali Gedi are currently visiting the country to build support for the government's return.

.

Those Who Cannot Remember the Past are Doomed to Repeat it." - George Santayana, A Life of Reason, Book One: Reason & Common Sense, 1916

Jack Kinsella - Omega Letter Editor
"Those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it." - George Santayana, A Life of Reason, Book One: Reason & Common Sense, 1916

Waffling, wavering, withdrawal, or appeasement -- all in response to terrorism...the sentiment has any number of names and only one inevitable conclusion.

It emboldens the enemy and gives him precious time to regroup, reequip and resume the conflict -- on his own terms.

The most classic case of appeasement from history is British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain's 'peace in our time' speech in 1938.

Prime Minister Chamberlain and French president Edouard Daladier travelled to Munich, Germany to conclude a peace agreement with Adolph Hitler.

In March 1938, MI6 agent Hugh Christie told the British government that Adolf Hitler could be ousted by the military if Britain joined forces with Czechoslovakia against Germany.

Christie warned that the "crucial question is 'How soon will the next step against Czechoslovakia be tried?' ... The probability is that the delay will not exceed two or three months at most, unless France and England provide the deterrent, for which cooler heads in Germany are praying."

Instead, the heads of the governments of Germany, Britain, France and Italy met in Munich in September, 1938. At that meeting, they signed the Munich Agreement.

Rather than joining forces with the Czechs, the British and French agreed to carve up and give away the Sudetenland, a part of Czechoslovakia, in exchange for a promise from Hitler not to demand any more of Europe.

Czechoslovakia's head of state was not invited to the meeting in which his country was negotiated away by the British and French.

Chamberlain came home to London, waving a piece of paper signed by Adolph Hitler, promising peace in exchange for the Sudetenland, and predicted that the Munich Agreement would guarantee 'peace in our time'.

In March, 1939, Hitler seized the rest of Czechoslovakia, after having annexed Austria the month before.

(The union between Austria and Germany was expressly forbidden by the Treaty of Versailles that formally ended World War I.)

Chamberlain's policy cost Czechoslovakia its freedom, handed Austria over to the Nazis without a shot being fired, and enlarged the Nazi empire and the German pool of army conscripts.

By November, Hitler was strong enough to invade Poland, despite his promises to the contrary, beginning the Second World War. The Munich Agreement had so empowered and enlarged Nazi Germany that it took five years to dislodge the Nazis from Europe.

At 6:20 a.m. on October 23, 1983, a large Mercedes truck approached the Beirut airport, passing well within sight of Israeli sentries in their nearby base, going through a Lebanese army checkpoint, and turning left into the parking lot.

A U.S. Marine guard reported with alarm that the truck was gathering speed, but before he could do anything, the truck roared toward the entrance of the four-story reinforced concrete Aviation Safety Building.

The building was being used as headquarters for the Eighth Marine Battalion.

The truck crashed through a wrought-iron gate, hitting the sand-bagged guard post, smashed through another barrier, rammed a wall of sandbags into the lobby, and exploded with such a terrific force that the building was instantly reduced to rubble.

The attack killed 241 Marines, most of whom died while sleeping in their cots. It was the highest single-day death toll for American forces since the beginning of the Tet Offensive that took 246 American lives across Vietnam in one day on January 13, 1968.

Within days, the Israelis passed along to the CIA the names of 13 people who they said were connected to the bombing deaths of the U.S. Marines and French paratroopers, a list including Syrian intelligence, Iranians in Damascus, and Shi'ite leaders in Beirut.

Instead of retaliating, the Reagan administration pulled all US forces out of Lebanon.

Osama bin Laden underscored the symbolic importance of the 1983 violence when he told ABC News in 1998 that U.S. soldiers were "paper tigers."

"The Marines fled after two explosions," he recalled.

"There is no question it was a major cause of 9/11," said former Navy Secretary John Lehman, a member of the Sept. 11 investigative commission quoted recently in Knight Ridder Newspapers. "We told the world that terrorism succeeds."

In 1993, following the Battle of Mogadishu (made famous by the movie, 'Black Hawk Down') Bill Clinton abandoned the Somalia objectives and withdrew all US forces from Somalia.

In 1996, bin-Laden issued a fatwa against the United States. In it, he cited Somalia as evidence of US weakness that he said proved his mujahadeen would win.

"But your most disgraceful case was in Somalia; where- after vigorous propaganda about the power of the USA and its post cold war leadership of the new world order- you moved tens of thousands of international force, including twenty eight thousand American solders into Somalia. However, when tens of your solders were killed in minor battles and one American Pilot was dragged in the streets of Mogadishu you left the area carrying disappointment, humiliation, defeat and your dead with you."

In his fatwa, entitled, "Declaration of War against the Americans Occupying the Land of the Two Holy Places," bin-Laden also noted that;

"Clinton appeared in front of the whole world threatening and promising revenge, but these threats were merely a preparation for withdrawal. You have been disgraced by Allah and you withdrew; the extent of your impotence and weaknesses became very clear. It was a pleasure for the "heart" of every Muslim and a remedy to the "chests" of believing nations to see you defeated in the three Islamic cities of Beirut , Aden and Mogadishu."

America's history of appeasement of terrorism is bi-partisan. It began under Ronald Reagan, and became the unofficial policy of the Clinton administration for the eight years that led up to September 11, 2001.

If the Europeans didn't learn the price of appeasement on their own Continent in 1938, one would expect that maybe they learned something about it from America's record.

But the recent agreement they signed with the mad mullahs in Tehran proves Santayana's maxim that those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them.

The agreement with Iran's mullahs is even less reassuring than Chamberlain's Munich Pact. At least Hitler PROMISED, and pretended he intended to keep his promise.

The Iranians promised, in so many words, that they would break the agreement to suspend nuclear enrichment, even before they signed it, but the EU went ahead anyway.

EU negotiators included, at Iranian insistence, the following line: "The E3/EU recognizes that this suspension is a voluntary confidence building measure and not a legal obligation.”

Iran is the keystone of the terrorist edifice and we are doomed to confront it sooner or later, nuclear or not. The question is not 'if', but 'when'.

And the answer is even older than the question.

"After many days thou shalt be visited: in THE LATTER YEARS thou shalt come into the land that is brought back from the sword, and is gathered out of many people, against the mountains of Israel, which have been always waste: but it is brought forth out of the nations, and they shall dwell safely all of them." (Ezekiel 38:8)

"Verily I say unto you, that this generation shall not pass, till all these things be done." (Mark 13:30)

 

 
HAN Bulletin is your independent, online intelligence resource edited and published by the regional political historian, veteran newsman and founder of www.geeskaafrika.com (Geeska Afrika Online 1985). Each week he taps his vast network of international intelligence sources to bring you credible insights into geo-political and geo-strategic developments for the Horn of Africa.  Contact at  nurkafi@geeskaafrika.com  (Managing Editor/Publisher)


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