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The oil factor in Bush's ' Oil-transit chokepoints' and the Horn of Africa
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Dr.Abdullahi Mohamed (Deputy Editor Geeka Afrika
Online)
Djibouti (HAN) March 3, 2005 Somalia
"a forgotten crisis," Listen
Speaking Freely is HAN's Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say
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The oil factor in Bush's 'war on tyranny' and the Horn of Africa
Yemen and Germany signed three economic agreements as German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder held talks with Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh after arriving in Sanaa on the fifth leg of a regional tour.

Somalia:
Continuation of War by Other Means?
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The oil factor in Bush's ' Oil-transit chokepoints' and the Horn of Africa
Djibouti (HAN) March 3, 2005- Speaking Freely
is HAN's online feature: Yemen fits nicely as an "emerging
target" with the other target nearby, Somalia and Djibouti
“the oil-transit chokepoints”.
The Sudan Oil Issues, as noted, has become a major oil supplier to
China, whose national oil company has invested more than US$3
billion since 1999 building oil pipelines from southern Sudan to
the Red Sea port. The coincidence of this fact with the
escalating concern in Washington about genocide and humanitarian
disaster in oil-rich Darfur in southern Sudan is not lost on
Beijing. China threatened a United Nations veto against any
intervention against Sudan. The first act of a re-elected Dick
Cheney late last year was to fill his vice-presidential jet with
UN Security Council members to fly to Nairobi to discuss the
humanitarian crisis in Darfur, an eerie reminder of defense
secretary Cheney's "humanitarian" concern over Somalia
in 1991.
The Washington's choice of Somalia and Yemen is a matched pair, as
a look at a Middle East/Horn of Africa map will confirm. Yemen
sits at the oil-transit chokepoint of Bab el-Mandap, the narrow
point controlling oil flow from the Red Sea with the Indian
Ocean. Yemen also has oil, although no one yet knows just how
much. It could be huge. A US firm, Hunt Oil Co, is pumping
200,000 barrels a day from there but that is likely only the tip
of the find.
Yemen fits nicely as an "emerging target" with the other target
nearby, Somalia.
"Yes, Virginia," the 1992 Somalia military action by George
Herbert Walker Bush, which gave the US a bloody nose, was in
fact about oil too. Little known was the fact that the
humanitarian intervention by 20,000 US troops ordered by father
Bush in Somalia had little to do with the purported famine
relief for starving Somalis. It had a lot to do with the fact
that four major US oil companies, led by Bush's friends at
Conoco of Houston, Texas, and including Amoco (now BP), Condi
Rice's Chevron, and Phillips, all held huge oil-exploration
concessions in Somalia. The deals had been made with the former
"pro-Washington" tyrannical and corrupt regime of
Mohamed Siad Barre.
The last centurey’s Somalia leaders Gen. Mohamed Siad Barre was
inconveniently deposed just as Conoco reportedly hit black gold
with nine exploratory wells, confirmed by World Bank geologists.
US Somalia envoy Robert B Oakley, a veteran of the US mujahideen
project in Afghanistan in the 1980s, almost blew the US game
when, during the height of the civil war in Mogadishu in 1992,
he moved his quarters on to the Conoco compound for safety. A
new US cleansing of Somali "tyranny" would open the
door for these US oil companies to map and develop the possibly
huge oil potential in Somalia. Yemen and Somalia are two flanks
of the same geological configuration, which holds large
potential petroleum deposits, as well as being the flanks of the
oil chokepoint from the Red Sea.
Belarus is also no champion of human rights, but from Washington's
standpoint, the fact that its government is tightly bound to
Moscow makes it the obvious candidate for a Ukraine-style
"Orange Revolution" regime-change effort. That would
complete the US encirclement of Russia on the west and of
Russia's export pipelines to Europe, were it to succeed. Some
81% of all Russian oil exports today go to Western European
markets. Such a Belarus regime change now would limit the
potential for a nuclear-armed Russia to form a bond with France,
Germany and the EU as potential counterweight against the power
of the United States sole superpower, a highest priority for
Washington Eurasia geopolitics.
The military infrastructure for dealing with such tyrant states seems to
be shaping up as well. In the January 24 New Yorker magazine,
veteran journalist Seymour Hersh cited Pentagon and CIA sources
to claim that the position of Rumsfeld and the warhawks is even
stronger today than before the Iraq war. Hersh reported that
Bush signed an Executive Order last year, without fanfare,
placing major CIA covert operations and strategic analysis into
the hands of the Pentagon, sidestepping any congressional
oversight. He added that plans for the widening of the "war
on terror" under Rumsfeld were also agreed upon in the
administration well before the election.
The Washington Post confirmed Hersh's allegation, reporting that
Rumsfeld's Pentagon had created, by Presidential Order, and
bypassing Congress, a new Strategic Support Branch, which
co-opts traditional clandestine and other functions of the CIA.
According to a report by US Army Colonel (retired) Dan Smith, in
Foreign Policy in Focus last November, the new SSB unit includes
the elite military special SEAL Team 6, Delta Force army
squadrons, and potentially a paramilitary army of 50,000
available for "splendid little wars" outside
congressional purview.
The list of emerging targets in a new "war on tyranny" is
clearly fluid, provisional, and adaptable as developments
change. It is clear that a breathtaking array of future military
and economic offensives is in the works at the highest policy
levels to transform the world. A world oil price of US$150 a
barrel or more in the next few years would be joined by
chokepoint control of the supply by one power if Washington has
its way.

German Ties with Yemen as
Chancellor Makes First Visit
Yemen (HAN) March 3, 2005 : Yemen and Germany signed three economic agreements as German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder held talks with Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh after arriving in Sanaa on the fifth leg of a regional tour.
A third agreement was signed between the Yemeni government and German engineering giant Siemens to build a gas-powered electricity station in Yemen to be financed by the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development (AFESD).
"We have close economic ties ... and the president and myself are agreed on boosting this cooperation," Schroeder, the first German chancellor to visit Yemen, told reporters after the talks.
Saleh for his part called on Germany to play an active role within the European Union and the international community to "support the rehabilitation of state structures" in war-torn Somalia.
"If stability is not restored in Somalia ... it will be a breeding ground for terrorism," warned Saleh, who has launched a crackdown on suspected Al-Qaeda militants in his own country at the behest of the United States.
East African defense chiefs to meet in Uganda on Somali peace mission
KAMPALA, March 3 (AFP) -- East African defense ministers will meet here
next week to discuss the deployment of regional peacekeepers to
lawless Somalia, a move which has met local opposition, the
Ugandan foreign ministry said Tuesday.
Defense ministers and senior military officials from the
Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) will gather
on Monday to review the findings of an expert-level fact-finding
trip to Somalia to prepare the a report on the mission, it said.
"The defense ministers and army chiefs of staff will meet here
starting on March 7 to receive a report from a team of experts
that was recently in Mogadishu to assess the situation ahead of
the proposed peace mission there," the ministry's permanent
secretary, Julius Onen, told AFP.
The defense chiefs are to prepare a situational analysis and come up with
the number of troops needed for the mission, its budget and
other logistics, he said.
Monday's talks will set the stage for a meeting of IGAD foreign ministers
on the issue of Somalia to be held March 16 and 17 in the Kenyan
capital, Onen said.
The African Union has authorized IGAD -- which comprises Djibouti,
Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Uganda -- to send
peacekeepers to Somalia to help the country's transitional
government get a foothold there when it eventually relocates
from exile in Nairobi.
Although the goverment has requested the force, opposition to troops from
Ethiopia and Djibouti is running high in Somalia, where the two
countries are seen as having ulterior motives in contributing.
Onen said that the weekend rejection by influential Somali warlords of
troops from the two nations would be discussed by the defense
ministers but would not prevent the deployment of the IGAD
force.
"That threat will not stop the mission because the region is ready to
deploy troops in Somalia," he said.
Somalia has been awash in a sea of anarchic violence for 14 years since
the 1991 ouster of Somali strongman Mohamed Siad Barre turned
the Horn of Africa nation into a patchwork of fiefdoms ruled by
violent warlords.
IGAD sponsored two years of peace talks between various Somali clans and
factions that culminated in the formation of the Somali
transitional government in Kenya in October.
The administration has remained in Nairobi because of
security concerns although President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed and
Prime Minister Mohammed Ali Gedi are currently visiting the
country to build support for the government's return.
.
Those
Who Cannot Remember the Past are Doomed to Repeat it."
- George Santayana, A Life of Reason, Book One: Reason
& Common Sense, 1916
Jack
Kinsella - Omega Letter Editor
"Those
who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat
it." - George Santayana, A Life of Reason,
Book One: Reason & Common Sense, 1916
Waffling,
wavering, withdrawal, or appeasement -- all in
response to terrorism...the sentiment has any
number of names and only one inevitable
conclusion.
It emboldens the enemy and gives him precious
time to regroup, reequip and resume the conflict
-- on his own terms.
The most classic case of appeasement from
history is British Prime Minister Neville
Chamberlain's 'peace in our time' speech in 1938.
Prime Minister Chamberlain and French president
Edouard Daladier travelled to Munich, Germany to
conclude a peace agreement with Adolph Hitler.
In March 1938, MI6 agent Hugh Christie told the
British government that Adolf Hitler could be
ousted by the military if Britain joined forces
with Czechoslovakia against Germany.
Christie warned that the "crucial question
is 'How soon will the next step against
Czechoslovakia be tried?' ... The probability is
that the delay will not exceed two or three months
at most, unless France and England provide the
deterrent, for which cooler heads in Germany are
praying."
Instead, the heads of the governments of
Germany, Britain, France and Italy met in Munich
in September, 1938. At that meeting, they signed
the Munich Agreement.
Rather than joining forces with the Czechs, the
British and French agreed to carve up and give
away the Sudetenland, a part of Czechoslovakia, in
exchange for a promise from Hitler not to demand
any more of Europe.
Czechoslovakia's head of state was not invited
to the meeting in which his country was negotiated
away by the British and French.
Chamberlain came home to London, waving a piece
of paper signed by Adolph Hitler, promising peace
in exchange for the Sudetenland, and predicted
that the Munich Agreement would guarantee 'peace
in our time'.
In March, 1939, Hitler seized the rest of
Czechoslovakia, after having annexed Austria the
month before.
(The union between Austria and Germany was
expressly forbidden by the Treaty of Versailles
that formally ended World War I.)
Chamberlain's policy cost Czechoslovakia its
freedom, handed Austria over to the Nazis without
a shot being fired, and enlarged the Nazi empire
and the German pool of army conscripts.
By November, Hitler was strong enough to invade
Poland, despite his promises to the contrary,
beginning the Second World War. The Munich
Agreement had so empowered and enlarged Nazi
Germany that it took five years to dislodge the
Nazis from Europe.
At 6:20 a.m. on October 23, 1983, a large
Mercedes truck approached the Beirut airport,
passing well within sight of Israeli sentries in
their nearby base, going through a Lebanese army
checkpoint, and turning left into the parking lot.
A U.S. Marine guard reported with alarm that
the truck was gathering speed, but before he could
do anything, the truck roared toward the entrance
of the four-story reinforced concrete Aviation
Safety Building.
The building was being used as headquarters for
the Eighth Marine Battalion.
The truck crashed through a wrought-iron gate,
hitting the sand-bagged guard post, smashed
through another barrier, rammed a wall of sandbags
into the lobby, and exploded with such a terrific
force that the building was instantly reduced to
rubble.
The attack killed 241 Marines, most of whom
died while sleeping in their cots. It was the
highest single-day death toll for American forces
since the beginning of the Tet Offensive that took
246 American lives across Vietnam in one day on
January 13, 1968.
Within days, the Israelis passed along to the
CIA the names of 13 people who they said were
connected to the bombing deaths of the U.S.
Marines and French paratroopers, a list including
Syrian intelligence, Iranians in Damascus, and
Shi'ite leaders in Beirut.
Instead of retaliating, the Reagan
administration pulled all US forces out of
Lebanon.
Osama bin Laden underscored the symbolic
importance of the 1983 violence when he told ABC
News in 1998 that U.S. soldiers were "paper
tigers."
"The Marines fled after two
explosions," he recalled.
"There is no question it was a major cause
of 9/11," said former Navy Secretary John
Lehman, a member of the Sept. 11 investigative
commission quoted recently in Knight Ridder
Newspapers. "We told the world that terrorism
succeeds."
In 1993, following the Battle of Mogadishu
(made famous by the movie, 'Black Hawk Down') Bill
Clinton abandoned the Somalia objectives and
withdrew all US forces from Somalia.
In 1996, bin-Laden issued a fatwa against the
United States. In it, he cited Somalia as evidence
of US weakness that he said proved his mujahadeen
would win.
"But your most disgraceful case was in
Somalia; where- after vigorous propaganda about
the power of the USA and its post cold war
leadership of the new world order- you moved tens
of thousands of international force, including
twenty eight thousand American solders into
Somalia. However, when tens of your solders were
killed in minor battles and one American Pilot was
dragged in the streets of Mogadishu you left the
area carrying disappointment, humiliation, defeat
and your dead with you."
In his fatwa, entitled, "Declaration of
War against the Americans Occupying the Land of
the Two Holy Places," bin-Laden also noted
that;
"Clinton appeared in front of the whole
world threatening and promising revenge, but these
threats were merely a preparation for withdrawal.
You have been disgraced by Allah and you withdrew;
the extent of your impotence and weaknesses became
very clear. It was a pleasure for the
"heart" of every Muslim and a remedy to
the "chests" of believing nations to see
you defeated in the three Islamic cities of Beirut
, Aden and Mogadishu."
America's history of appeasement of terrorism
is bi-partisan. It began under Ronald Reagan, and
became the unofficial policy of the Clinton
administration for the eight years that led up to
September 11, 2001.
If the Europeans didn't learn the price of
appeasement on their own Continent in 1938, one
would expect that maybe they learned something
about it from America's record.
But the recent agreement they signed with the
mad mullahs in Tehran proves Santayana's maxim
that those who fail to learn the lessons of
history are doomed to repeat them.
The agreement with Iran's mullahs is even less
reassuring than Chamberlain's Munich Pact. At
least Hitler PROMISED, and pretended he intended
to keep his promise.
The Iranians promised, in so many words, that
they would break the agreement to suspend nuclear
enrichment, even before they signed it, but the EU
went ahead anyway.
EU negotiators included, at Iranian insistence,
the following line: "The E3/EU recognizes
that this suspension is a voluntary confidence
building measure and not a legal obligation.”
Iran is the keystone of the terrorist edifice
and we are doomed to confront it sooner or later,
nuclear or not. The question is not 'if', but
'when'.
And the answer is even older than the question.
"After many days thou shalt be visited: in
THE LATTER YEARS thou shalt come into the land
that is brought back from the sword, and is
gathered out of many people, against the mountains
of Israel, which have been always waste: but it is
brought forth out of the nations, and they shall
dwell safely all of them." (Ezekiel 38:8)
"Verily I say unto you, that this
generation shall not pass, till all these things
be done." (Mark 13:30)
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