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The Horn of Africa and Yemen Unstable
By John Donnelly, March 11, 2005- Harvard study cites terror deficiencies. Although Yemen and the Horn of Africa region are known as fertile grounds for terrorist groups, the US government has failed to respond sufficiently to the threat, according to a Harvard University report released yesterday.

The shortcomings include a severe shortage of diplomats and intelligence agents with expertise in the region, the report said.

''It's a situation that is volatile and capable of spinning rapidly out of control unless we get on top of it," said Robert I. Rotberg, director of the Program on Intrastate Conflict at the Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. ''It's a mystery zone."

Rotberg said that the United States does not have enough people knowledgeable about local communities and customs to keep track of terror structures in the region. As an example, he said, ''at most, at any one time, there are two people in all those six or seven embassies in the region who can speak the local languages."

The Harvard program assembled three dozen former and current US diplomats, CIA officers, military leaders, and analysts for three days in November to examine the terrorist threat in the area, which is two-thirds the size of the continental United States and has porous borders. The group, which included intelligence officials working in the region, found that terrorist cells linked to Al Qaeda ''were few, but dangerous" and that instability in the region could provide opportunities for the groups to recruit, organize, and expand.

In particular, the report called for the United States to play a greater role in assisting the central government in Somalia, which is in exile in neighboring Kenya because of security concerns; fully resolving the long-running war between Ethiopia and Eritrea; keeping a closer watch on the spread of Wahhabism, a strict form of Islam; and strengthening US diplomatic representation in Sudan.

''There were fewer [terror] cells than I would have guessed" in the region, Rotberg said by telephone from Cambridge. ''But there's also less expertise than I would have expected" from the Americans. ''No one really knows what is going on in many of the areas."

John Prendergast, special adviser to the president of the International Crisis Group and a participant at the meeting, said there was a strong disconnect between Washington's knowledge of the threat and actions on the ground.

''The threat emanating from particularly Somalia appears to be well understood by those conducting the war on terrorism, but the tools being applied to combat the threat are dangerously inadequate," Prendergast said. ''The core infrastructure for terrorist elements in Somalia traveling along the Indian Ocean corridor is largely undisturbed."

The United States has been concerned about terrorism in the region for more than a decade. In 1993, two US military helicopters, part of a peacekeeping mission, were shot down in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, resulting in the deaths of 19 US soldiers and hundreds of Somalis. Five years later, the bombings of embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, killed hundreds and were linked to Al Qaeda.

Groups linked to Al Qaeda also were responsible for the bombing of the USS Cole in the port of Aden, Yemen, in 2000, as well as the bombing of an Israeli-owned hotel in Malindi, Kenya, in 2002.

The Bush administration has stressed its commitment to confronting terrorist groups in the region. The US military has responded by increasing its presence to about 1,400 troops in the area, including a base in Djibouti, and it is widely assumed that the CIA and special forces are operating in several countries.

''This region has an established track record for very serious terrorist activity," Prendergast said. ''Underestimating or misdiagnosing the nature of the threat could have deadly consequences." John Donnelly can be reached at donnelly@globe.com.

Somalia Needs Foreign Troops: The Warlords Shouldn't Set the Agenda

By: Abdirizak Muse March 11, 2005-- In this 21st century, the modern world is developing so rapidly technologically and economically. Unfortunately Somalia is at the bottom of the family of nations in every aspect and is currently in a state of failed nation. It is sad to watch Somalia 's downfall as it ceases to exist as a nation. Now it is the time for the Somalis to think seriously about their future and initiate how to put the country back on track and reject those warlords who have become a road block on Somalia 's long march towards peace and harmony. Somali warlords had held numerous peace talks during the past 14 years but failed to make any tangible concession to one another and reach any meaningful agreement. However, the last peace talk that was held in Kenya had brought back the hope that Somali's would finally achieve their goal of reconstituting their nation. This culminated in the birth of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the election of President Abdillahi Yusuf Ahmed and his Prime Minister Ali M. Geedi. Although, Mr. Abdillahi Yusuf Ahmed was not my favorite among the leaders who participated in the Somali peace conference but when the wish of the parliamentarians has surfaced, I did not have choice but to accept the outcome. Similarly I gave my support to the TNG of Mr. Abdikasim Salad Hassan and Ali Kh. Galleydh based on the same reasons in which I am for the newly formed Government of Mr. Ahmed. It is about time we should say enough is enough and come up with some sort of a plan to end the chaos, disorder, wanton killing of innocent and all the horrific daily acts that has engulfed the nation and Mogadishu in particular. Currently there are consultations among Somali elites and warlords about the issue of dispatching foreign troops to Somalia . In my humble opinion, I am inclined to this enterprise, in which I believe that this venture can bring back peace to Somalia . We must address the harmful weapons and guns in the hands of Mogadishu 's militia as they are the core problem. As have been said by many, the solution is to encamp these militias and prepare them for recruitment in military, police and national guards for the FTG and move them away from the clan badge of honor that they carry now. However, the big question is which countries will the foreign troops coming from? The Neighbors that We Scare Apparently, the sponsors and organizers of the Somali peace conference were the IGAD member States and their approach of deploying peacekeepers to Somalia was the centerpiece of their discussion. Africans, excluding Somali neighbors, and Arab troops were preferable to many of the Somali paticipants of the conference. However, that was simply a wishful thinking and was not forthcoming. Africa has yet to deliver any meaningful number of troops to Darfur of Sudan, despite the horrible ethnic cleansing which the whole world collectively condemned. Africa , unless there is a regional interest, has a bad track record in intervention on behalf of a sister country. Therefore, TFG had run out of alternatives and was obligated to reassess its previous position and accept neighbor countries' contribution to the peacekeeping mission in Somalia . Warlords are first and foremost problematic for any Government since 1991. These thugs want to keep the staus quo regardless. They are destructive elements of our society who do nothing good but rather nonsense killings of their fellow countrymen. These monsters are responsible for the despair that Somalis endured for the past 14 years, and the abuse of the nation's natural resource. As a result our coastlines have become nuclear waste disposal as reported recently. Currently some of these warlods are using Ethiopia as a scapegaot and are coming out against the deployment of the troops from the front line states inorder to continue their business of enriching themselves at the expense of the people. They have no alternative other than prolong the dismemberment of the country. Ethiopia has its own problems and does not have the capacity now to occupy Somalia. Ethiopia is a poor country run on foreign assistance. The country has primitive economy; its society is bitterly divided on an ethnic lines such as; (Oromo, Amhara, Somali, Tigray and Afar). The contending views of the various groups can explode at any moment and when that happens, Ethiopia may become a replica of the former USSR and Yugoslavia. Moreover, Ethiopia is landlocked state surrounded by unfriendly neighbors and therefore it is interest lies with a stable Somalia. Somali circumstance in this era is in a very terrifying stage in its history, which needs a systematic, well thought way of undoing the turmoil and chaos which impeded Somali daily life. The warlord's mentality should be crystal clear to every Somali by now, needless to say that it is essential to gain back the law and order for the country. Therefore, if Arab nations and non-neighbor Africans are not ready of being part of this operation, then we have no choice but to accept the offer of the IGAD member states including Ethiopia. Ethiopia is already deeply involved in the Somali affairs. For example, they do have a huge influence on the administrations of Somaliland, Puntland and other regions in the country (Bay, Bakool, and Gedo). So does Ethiopia literally control Hussien Aidid factions, Jawhar and all the border areas of the country. It is also, reported that Ethiopians have great influence on Berbera Port. If so, why suddenly the fuss now? What is sad though is Yalaxow and Caato have set the Agenda for a lot of Somalis with good intent. We now appear as the people who accused the troops of peacekeepers from neighboring country as to quote Yalaxow, "carriers of the AIDS virus" . Abdirizak Muse , California , USA      E-mail: Gedi_3@hotmail.com

Study  Foresees Future US-China Conflict Over Oil March 11, 2005 -- China recently became the world's largest consumer nation in virtually every commodity category except one: oil. Here it is second only to the United States in its thirst for petroleum and it is that appetite that a five-to-one majority in a recent Internet poll believe will eventually bring it into conflict with the World's only super-power. China's demand for oil has seen it scouring the planet from Russia, where it has sought a stake in Yukos-controlled oil fields, to Canadian tar sands, to Venezuelan crude, to reserves in Somalia, to cutting lucrative deals Iran, which has earmarked nearly 15 percent of its oil production for China. And it is gradually beefing up its naval and maritime presence along the vital oil tanker routes that thread strategic Far East choke points. And while China is aggressively seeking to encourage greater use of renewable energy and conservation technologies, its booming economy continues to strain the world's ability to produce enough oil to meet global demand, driving up prices into the +$50 a barrel range; and potentially setting the stage for a future economic, diplomatic and/or possible military conflict. So, during the month of February 2005, EV World, the Internet's leading web portal for news and information about sustainable transportation technologies, asked its readers, "Do you believe that China's growing appetite for oil will eventually bring it into conflict with the United States?" A total of 670 readers took part in the poll. Of those 77 percent (517) responded "Yes"; 15 percent (100) responded "No"; and 8 percent (53) replied "Unsure". That's a five-to-one margin of those who see potential conflict between two of the world's largest consuming nations. "This is obviously a troubling finding," stated EV World publisher Bill Moore. "It clearly suggests a pervasive pessimism about how successful either nation will be in reducing its dependence on imported oil. These findings, while not scientific, should be a wake-up call to the leaders of both nations that we must find a way to work peacefully and constructively towards sustainable energy solutions that don't pit nation-against-nation in the competition for resources."

HAN Bulletin is your independent, online intelligence resource edited and published by the regional political historian, veteran newsman and founder of www.geeskaafrika.com (Geeska Afrika Online 1985). Each week he taps his vast network of international intelligence sources to bring you credible insights into geo-political and geo-strategic developments for the Horn of Africa.  Contact at  nurkafi@geeskaafrika.com  (Managing Editor/Publisher)