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HAN
Note:  IGAD
Breaking News (HAN) August 10th, 2008
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Djibouti: Disappointment and
skepticism about the agreement
Djibouti (HAN) August 10th, 2008 - According to the HAN archives last
year, as Somalia’s Leaders Meet; Collecting weapons has been the top
priority for the transitional government since it arrived in the
capital. With the help of the Ethiopian military, the Ethiopian forces
swiftly defeated Somalia’s Islamist forces (ICU). Despite the talk of
reconciliation, many Southern Somalia leaders, especially members of the
Hawiye clan, fear that the Ethiopian forces with the transitional
government forces will selectively disarm certain clans while allowing
others to keep their guns.
“We fear not just for ourselves,” said Dr.Mohammed M. Uluso, chairman of
the political leadership council for the Ayr, a branch of the Hawiye
clan tree. “We fear for all of Somalia.”
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Dr. Mohamud M. Uluso
chairman of the political leadership council for the Ayr
The Horn of African
Journalist Association (HAJA): han@geeskaafrika.com |
Updated notes from Dr. Uluso about the current peace talks in
Djibouti, and he send this Report:
The majority of South Central people of Somalia has received the
agreement signed in Djibouti on June 9 between the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) and faction of the opposition Alliance for
Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS-D) with mixed disappointment and
skepticism. In fact, the New York Times of June 11 reported that "if the
reaction to the accord struck on Monday night is any gauge, peace may
still be a long way off." The international community shoulders much of
the blame for this spurious attempt for peace in Somalia.
Among others, four premises constitute serious obstacles to peace in
Somalia. One, TFG which is synonymous with President Abdullahi Yusuf is
credited as a legitimate government against the will of the Somali
people. Two, Somalia is in theory united and sovereign territory but in
practice it is divided into three or four separate territories without
sovereignty. Three, the departure of Ethiopian forces will create
security vacuum as there is security especially in South Central
Somalia. Four, the protection of TFG presidency, Mogadishu port and
airport is more important than the protection of the lives, properties
and the future of 2/3 of the Somali population.
Some of the reasons for the disappointment and skepticism about the
agreement are:
First, the UN-led process for organizing "Djibouti meeting" lacked
transparency, comprehensiveness and objectivity. The hastily signed
agreement after a week long seminar probably devised to circumvent ARS-D's
refusal of face-to-face meeting with TFG was not product of negotiation
exercise between combatants addressing the real situation in Somalia.
ARS-D leaders admitted that they signed the agreement "under duress".
The inclusion of the phrase "throughout the national territory" in the
agreement exclusively applicable to the "South Central Somalia"
surprised many.
Second, the top ARS leadership failed to act with accountability and
responsibility. After the brutal battle for ARS top position in 2007,
four developments took place. First, the Chairman of the Central
Committee being resentful of his defeat started looking for another
political fortune in exchange for leaving or wrecking ARS. He favored
compromise with TFG based on Sana'a deal. Second, Ethiopia lobbied
intensely to reach political accommodation with Islamist leaders in
Asmara as a blow to Eritrea and divide and rule policy. Third, through
discussions with the international community, ARS leadership became
convinced that President Abdullahi Yusuf's ousting from office is
forgone conclusion. Fourth, some of ARS leadership felt that Eritrea is
following open policy or not hierarchical approach in dealing with
opposition forces.
As consequence, ARS delegation led by both Chairmen arrived in Nairobi
in April for secret discussion with the International Community. Without
internal deliberations, the two leaders agreed to pre-outlined political
plan fashioned by UN for ARS's renunciation of armed resistance. The
plan going against ARS Charter set the stage for ARS schism. The
abandonment of ARS's declared cause by the two leaders without prior
formal political process has proved the lack of accountability,
transparency and collective responsibility within ARS and astonished ARS
supporters, opponents and observers alike.
The "Djibouti meeting" formalized the division of ARS. In addition, it
accomplished exclusion and humiliation of Eritrea, bolstering Ethiopia/TFG,
and facilitating resource mobilization. Break up struggle within ARS
just before Djibouti meeting has diminished the self confidence,
relevance and bargaining power of ARS-D.
Third, ARS-D failed to secure its core demand of guaranteed withdrawal
schedule of Ethiopian forces from Somalia. Clause 7(b) gives TFG the
discretionary power to act on the issue after deployment of sufficient
UN Forces. Also, ARS-D did not secure at minimum the return of IDPs to
their homes by deploying Ethiopian/TFG forces outside Mogadishu and
other places.
Still left out is PM Meles Zenawi unverifiable condition that Ethiopian
forces will leave Somalia after jihads are defeated. The general
consensus is that deployment of international stabilization force as
pre-condition for Ethiopian withdrawal is way off.
Clause 7(C) demands ARS-D solemn public condemnation of all acts of
armed violence in Somalia and dissociation from any armed groups or
individuals and refrain from non peaceful declarations and actions. This
simply means dissolution of ARS-D as political arm for armed resistance
and oppressed victims from June 9, 2008. In nutshell, the requirements
of the agreement are intended to de-legitimize the armed resistance
against Ethiopian/TFG Forces in Somalia without parallel rightful
restoration of freedom, protection, justice and democratic governance in
Somalia.
Fourth, the agreement shifted focus from the urgent need to investigate
the war crimes, atrocities and human rights violations committed mostly
by the Ethiopian/TFG forces in the last 18 months to general description
of the Somali guiltiness and deficiency of patriotism in the last 18
years. Victims of Ethiopian/TFG merciless attacks are reminded that the
international community had blessed what is going on in Somalia.
Fifth, while the international community and Ethiopia- TFG' allies -
dominated the outcome of the agreement, Eritrea as ARS ally has been
ostracized. Eritrea as other IGAD member countries gained interest in
Somalia. The border clash between Eritrea and Djibouti during the talks
has generated negative consequences that spilled over into Somali
politics.
Sixth, the declaration to hold International Conference on
Reconstruction and Development after 6 months appears impractical under
all aspects unless there is deliberate attempt to defraud donor
communities. Provision of funds to TFG means intensification of
corruption and human rights abuses. TFG lacks minimum internal
legitimacy and capacity to receive national and international resources
on behalf of South Central people of Somalia.
Finally, TFG has shown no enthusiasm for Djibouti Agreement. President
Abdullahi Yusuf asked the Security Council Mission in Djibouti the
refocus of UN energies on the roadmap to rebuild TFG rather than on
reconciliation process. Today's reality is that the "eventual"
withdrawal of Ethiopian forces does not depend on Somalia. Continuation
of resistance looks more probable. The exclusion of Ethiopia along with
neighboring countries from the international stabilization forces should
be sufficient reason for immediate departure of Ethiopian forces from
Somalia.
Source Opinion contributed by : Dr. Mohamud M. Uluso
chairman of the political leadership council for the Ayr
HAN
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