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Col. Yusuf Stirring Divisions Between Somalia and Ethiopian Brothers
Djibouti (HAN) February 11, 2005- For the first time since the last UN mission left the country in 1995, there is considerable international interest in Somalia, centred on the possibility that the country may become part of the global war against terrorism

The Ethiopia-backed Somalia Reconciliation and Restoration Council, TFSG and USC warlords do not have the power to make peace, only the capacity to disrupt and destroy. Their power and influence solely depends on the dynamics of war. Therefore, they have no interest in a peaceful settlement, because it would lead to the diminution of their power.

Once again, hopes are being raised of achieving peace and restoring civil order in Somalia, as the Kenyan-based TNG coalition attempts to parachute its Ethiopian-SRRC political designs. Solving Somalia's political crisis by some of those who engineered it seems both surrealistic and baffling.

Throughout this year, the news headlines on Somalia's crisis disproportionately involved the series of meetings held in the Ethiopia and Kenyan zones, and the possible venues of succeeding Kenyan conferences. Resembling the old SRRC of the 2000's electing a leader, Imbagheti brought together over 218 factions, each consisting of nothing more than a convenient acronym, solely established to have its leaders elected to some offices.

If the Kenyan Somali Peace process ended with one thing - a promise to hold another in Mogadishu 2006, which is the most memorable achievements those conferences seemed to accomplish - the next one, whether held in Hargeisa or in elsewhere, will most likely yield yet another promise for another meeting elsewhere. Why do these conferences are doomed to fail? Seeking possible answers forces observers to go back, at least, to the beginnings of the drama - the demise of the Arta regime and the rise of the SRRC Warlord President's Group politics.

Somalia has seen destructive civil war and lawless banditry give way to more localised, unpredictable conflicts between smaller clan-based factions and warlord militia groups. Limited local attempts at economic recovery and restoration of the rule of law have been put at risk by the recent escalation between opposing factions backed by regional benefactors. There are great local disparities. The self-declared and unrecognised Republic of Somaliland provides significant governance and security in the Northwest, though its stability is fragile and threatened by recent political developments, including the death in May 2002 of its President, Mohamed Ibrahim Egal. Parts of southern Somalia and the Northeast, including the autonomous region of Puntland, remain embroiled in destabilising armed conflict.

Now, with the departure of Arta TNG Supported by a loose coalition of Arab and African countries, including Egypt, Libya, Djibouti, Eritrea and a number of Gulf states, and in alliance with militia groups, it is engaged in a tense and occasionally violent stand-off with an opposition coalition, the major difference is the growing influence of Ethiopia as a power broker in the peace process and relocation of Warlord President. Serving as a local proxy power for the West and a representative of the ineffectual AU, Ethiopia's role is to push for the establishment of a friendly central authority that will fill the governmental vacuum and will curb the growing influence of the Islamist groups and Pan-Somalis Groups there.

However, it is becoming apparent that Ethiopia's intervention has become the lightning rod for the groups who oppose the participation and the preparation of AU peacekeeping forces led by Ethiopian General. Just as the UN interventions had failed to impose a political settlement, the Ethiopia's role will likely backfire. Few Somalis, particularly those not directly connected with the contending factions, believe foreign involvement is the obvious way to resolve the crisis.

If the past is any guide to the future, any foreign intervention driven by determination that the dismembered country remain undivided, whatever the popular will, is doomed to failure. Moreover, Ethiopia's unpopularity in Somalia and Somaliland means it cannot assume a political role.

Despite repeated calamities, there is strong Somali interest in finding a way to stable governance. Virtually all political and civil society leaders interviewed by HAN expressed a firm desire for the international community, particularly the EU, AU and U.S., to reengage to promote reconciliation and reconstruction of the current TFSG to relocate in Mogadishu and start grass rooted dailogu for amicable peace.

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Ethiopian Troops Move aimed Helping for Somalia Addis Ababa (HAN) February 11, 2005: The Organization of African Union (AU) has authorized five east African nations to deploy troops and equipment to help Somalia's fledgling government return safely to this anarchic nation. Somalia's government was formed at peace talks in the safety of Kenya last year to end the lawless rule of local militias which banded together to depose military dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991. The five nations agreed at an AU summit in Nigeria last week to send troops or equipment to ensure security when the government returns. In a communique issued yesterday, the pan-African body's peace and security council laid out the responsibilities of a peace mission backed by contingents from Kenya, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Sudan and Uganda. The soldiers and other personnel are to be employed under the rubric of the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD), a group of east African governments that managed peace negotiations for Somalia and southern Sudan. Warlords in the Somali capital Mogadishu have started handing over key state installations occupied by their gunmen to an official Somali delegation that is negotiating the relocation of the country's national administration from exile in Kenya. Warlord Hussein Mohammed Aidid's Somali National Alliance (SNA) faction handed over the presidential palace in southern Mogadishu and asked President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed's government to return and occupy it "very soon." Aidid himself is a deputy prime minister in Ahmed's government. Commander Mohammed Jama Nour, now a lawmaker, also gave up control of the Mogadishu seaport and handed it over to Somali parliament speaker Shariff Hassan Sheikh Aden, who is leading a delegation of around 70 lawmakers.  "The port is now officially handed over to the government," Nur said. Operations at the port collapsed in 1995 when UN peacekeepers and US rangers fled amid an escalation of animosity with the local warlords. The AU-backed peace support mission is "to provide security support to the transitional federal government, in order to ensure its relocation to Somalia". It will also "guarantee the sustenance of the outcome of the IGAD peace process and assist with the re-establishment of peace and security, including the training of the police and army", the communique said. It is not clear when the government will actually relocate, but pundits who pore over African political calendars have pencilled the second quarter of 2005 as the likeliest period. Two groups of government officials returned to Somalia last week, greeted by cheering Somalis, while on a mission to assess security. Ahmed has said he wanted a combined AU-Arab League force of 7 500 troops to facilitate the government's return. But others in his administration have argued that the militias are all the military muscle required. Somalis are traditionally resistant to outside interference. The last peacekeeping mission in Somalia ended in a bloody and humiliating withdrawal by US and UN troops in the mid 1990s. The communique did not specify the deployment size, although Uganda has already pledged 2 000 troops.  Kenya's Foreign Minister Chirau Ali Makwere said Kenya wished to maintain its mediator's neutrality and therefore would only send logistics and observer personnel, not soldiers. It was unclear from what government branch the Kenyan contingent would be drawn.

HAN Bulletin is your independent, online intelligence resource edited and published by the regional political historian, veteran newsman and founder of www.geeskaafrika.com (Geeska Afrika Online 1985). Each week he taps his vast network of international intelligence sources to bring you credible insights into geo-political and geo-strategic developments for the Horn of Africa.  Contact at  nurkafi@geeskaafrika.com  (Managing Editor/Publisher)